I was browsing net aimlessly (tend to do this a lot), when I found this
article dated October 12, 2007 predicting that Linux will dominate the
world in 2014
Regardless of its modest market share in absolute terms, the fact
that Linux more than doubled suggests it is growing at a collision
course with the other OSes. If it were to maintain its current growth
rate, it would be the dominant OS by the year 2014.
Why / when / how did this prediction get derailed ? Do share your
thoughts.
More seriously, I heard that Linux “market share” (can we speak of “market share” when the kernel is free?) grow thanks to netbooks circa 2007. Because Windows Vista couldn’t fit in netbooks and cost as much as the netbook itself, OEM tend to choose Linux. Microsoft fought Linux on this segment by decreasing Windows XP price and extending Windows XP support. As a consequence, Asus, HP, Dell and co. put Windows XP instead of <insert here your favorite Linux distribution> in their netbooks.
Futermore, I don’t think Windows Vista “failure” helped Linux community growing as mush as expected.
It’s in virtually all supercomputers, many cloud deployments, most stock exchanges, digital TVs, satnavs, many embedded devices, a high proportion of smartphones and increasingly expected to dominate the tablet and in-car entertainment market.
nrickert wrote:
>
> vazhavandan;2595839 Wrote:
>> Why is Linux not dominating in 2014
>
> If we count Android as a linux variant, maybe it is dominating.
>
>
I agree to that statement because strictly speaking Linux refers to
Linux kernel.
But I read the “comments” in an article
(http://news.en.softonic.com/is-microsoft-office-coming-to-linux-in-2014)
saying that Android is not exactly Linux even though they share the
kernel as Android doesn’t have x windowsx and doesn’t depend on glibc
which are integral components of Linux.
[QUOTE=vazhavandan;2595839
[b]Why / when / how did this prediction get derailed ? Do share your
thoughts.[/QUOTE]
Domination is bad for competition and restricts choice. That applies to Linux (as an operating system product), just as it does to any other alternative.
The prediction was a simple extrapolation based on straight-line growth continuing, using soft data. It hardly ever works out that way.
It would be more constructive to say that the FOSS way of development, of which the Linux kernel is a prime example, is dominating the ways in which people are approaching a wide range of information technology and other situations.
Domination is only bad if it restricts choice; some years ago the Harvard guru Michael Porter pointed out that you should never seek to be a monopoly because then people expect you to be able to meet all their needs. Make sure you leave space for competitors to fill those parts of the market which it isn’t worth you filling. Then people have choice even though you may have a majority of the market share.
> I was browsing net aimlessly (tend to do this a lot), when I found this
> article dated October 12, 2007 predicting that Linux will dominate the
> world in 2014
It is, you just don’t see it.
Android,
back end servers,
VoIP,
Routers,
embedded systems…
IMHO, if Valve moves forward with it’s gaming system this year
it will see more popularity in the years ahead.
