The problem with predictions like this is that they don’t take into account that anybody may not continue on their path blindly, and that people and companies do look at reactions and feedback and adjust their course.
Microsoft’s Windows 8 Plan B (lue): Bring back the Start button, boot to desktop
I am not convinced they are going to do this, honestly, but that doesn’t mean they won’t consider it or adjust what they can control to possibly better or possibly worse effects.
I do believe that Microsoft is going to slide from their prominent position, and their time “on top of the heap” (consumer market) is more-or-less over. Considering where they are coming from, even dropping 50% brings them multiples larger than Apple! Not to mention, who is going to fill in the gap?
[ul]
[li]Phones and tablets are going to eat away at the desktop market.[/li][LIST]
[li]Tablets provide a more comfortable form factor (like looking at paper or a book) while phones provide the (always on) connectivity. The only advantages the traditional desktop and laptop offer are larger screens (desktops) and accessible keyboards on-the-go (laptops). [/li][li]In the past one would upgrade your system to get access to bigger and better programs, hold more of your stuff, and to play with the newest gadgets. Now the tablet and phone markets generate that excitement with new gadgets, forms and Apps. [/li][li]I hear of more and more people who buy a tablet and finds they aren’t using their destkop/laptop much, if at all, since. [/li][li]Don’t discount that Smart TVs are also growing which takes the place of having to use a computer to watch streamed video or shows over cable or something. [/li][li]Unfortunately Linux still does not have anybody in these markets other than Android. Ubuntu Phone / Ubuntu Touch and Mozilla OS are still trying to get started and are even behind Microsoft in terms of number of Apps available (something consumers, which this is focused towards, care for). So this makes Apple and Google first in line to eat Microsoft’s dog food (and that’s exactly what they are doing) [/li][/ul]
[li]Hardware out-accelerated software[/li][ul]
[li]I think Netbooks started it, showing that people don’t need super-powered systems to do what they want to do and emphasized other more important benefits; connectivity (anywhere) and long battery life, in addition to being cheap. [/li][li]Also, as more things move to the “cloud”, the requirements of the local system becomes little more than to run a browser (thus the concept behind Google Chrome OS). [/li][li]What doesn’t help is that, I read this in a blog somewhere, while tablet screens are packing in the pixels, laptop and desktop screens are similar to their older resolutions. I wish I could find the article and link to it though. [/li][li]Unfortunately, while Linux has improved tremendously with hardware detection there are still some issues with newer systems and the UEFI safe-boot situation. [/li][li]Fortunately Linux does work better on older systems and with less resources so providing new life to systems that cannot handle Windows updates or is secondary to a tablet/et. al. Breathing new life into these systems is what Linux is poised to taking advantage of. [/li][/ul]
[li]Windows 8’s effect[/li][ul]
[li]Some people still need or prefer desktops/laptops (developers, graphic designers, gamers). Of these people you have the ones that are going to get it regardless of what it has running on. Then you have the people “on the fence”. These “on the fence” people may hold off on buying a new system until they either can become more comfortable with Windows 8, wait to see what “Windows 9” will bring, or may look at alternatives (including Linux and OS X). [/li][li]Enterprises are more cautious and are less likely to jump to Windows 8 if they don’t need to. They will likely stick with Windows 7 as long as possible (eschewing the sales numbers). This may mean holding off on hardware purchases or migrating to a thin-client or web-based environment (I know ours is moving to a Windows 2008RT thin client scenario). [/li][/ul]
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Notice, Windows 8 is only one, and I think a not-so-big one, of the factors in the reduction of the desktop computer. Some may even say, though, that this drop in the desktop computer validates Microsoft’s move to Windows 8! Think of it, people are complaining how Windows 8 works so lousy on the desktop, and not so much criticism about its use on a touch device (tablets).
I am thinking Windows 8 is not a complete failure, but Microsoft dropped the ball for traditional desktops and laptops where people want a more Windows 7 like interface. If they do bring back the Start button and make the Modern interface an option (for laptops and desktops) or default for tablets then there should be less resistance. Best bet is to keep each available as people want and people will cross-over even just to “try it”.
I just hope Linux can take advantage of the coming changes, and not just by putting it on a tablet or phone either. Somehow make the repurposed desktop or laptop computer extend and enhance tablets (hook up for enhancements or adding new apps, backup and synchronize, recreate the tablet experiences with the advantage of full-sized keyboard and monitor, I dunno).
Wow,… sorry for the long rant. I didn’t realize how much I typed.
Yes most of mine are just conversion and