zypper dup seems to want to nuke my tumbleweed install

Your pastebin suggests…

  1. You added the packman repository, but you didn’t run the command to set your system to pull packages from packman over the OSS whenever possible
zypper dup --from packman
  1. At least for an application (wouldn’t know about your system), there is an upgrade from 32-bit to 64-bit. Did an application change architecture?

TSU